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Status Check: Q3 2023

This is our first status check and it also happens to be toward the end of the year, so it's a bit awkward.

Portfolio

We have about $3,800,000 ($3,912,079 in 2025) invested across taxable, pre-tax, and tax-free investments.

Account TypeAmount
Tax Free$175,000 ($180,162 in 2025)
Tax Deferred$1,140,000 ($1,173,624 in 2025)
Taxable$2,482,000 ($2,555,205 in 2025)

The Goal

Our goal is $4,500,000 ($4,632,725 in 2025) by May 30, 2025. A $700,000 ($720,646 in 2025) gap means our investments will have to increase by about $350,000 ($360,323 in 2025) per year to meet the goal.

We both max our 401ks, $22,500 ($23,164 in 2025) each, $45,000 ($46,327 in 2025) total per year. That leaves a $305,000 ($313,996 in 2025) gap per year.

We usually invest about $60,000 ($61,770 in 2025) each in taxable brokerages, $120,000 ($123,539 in 2025) total per year. That leaves a $185,000 ($190,456 in 2025) (4.86% of portfolio) gap per year.

The Paths

There are many paths to hit our goal:

  1. The market increases by 4.86% (after inflation) each year (unlikely at current CAPE levels).
  2. Windfalls in the form of liquidity of some private equity (unlikely given current market conditions, but likely within 3-5 years).
  3. Contribute more toward investments.
  4. Decrease planned retirement expenses. The obvious way to do that is to move to a lower cost of living area or rent instead of own.
  5. Be ok with less buffer in our plan.
  6. Earn money through hobbies or passion projects because why not.
  7. Aim to die with $0 in the portfolio instead of 10%.

There are also many potential roadblocks:

  1. Health problems.
  2. Family emergencies.
  3. Recession/depression.
  4. Fertility treatment.
  5. Aliens.
  6. World war.

The Plan

Given the options above, we will hold the course and see if we need to change things in 2024. Until then, the plan is to:

  1. Max 401k contributions.
  2. Max HSA contributions.
  3. Spend about $85,000 ($87,507 in 2025).
  4. Save for a few long term goals.
  5. Invest the rest.

I'm pretty comfortable with the balance of paths and roadblocks and I won't be surprised if the plan is completely different in two years. I look forward to the next update in January to see how off I am!