Status Check: Q3 2023

This is our first status check and it also happens to be toward the end of the year, so it's a bit awkward.

Portfolio

We have about $3,800,000 invested across taxable, pre-tax, and tax-free investments.

The Goal

Our goal is $4,500,000 by May 30, 2025. A $700,000 gap means our investments will have to increase by about $350,000 per year to meet the goal.

We both max our 401ks, $22,500 each, $45,000 total per year. That leaves a $305,000 gap per year.

We usually invest about $60,000 each in taxable brokerages, $120,000 total per year. That leaves a $185,000 (4.86% of portfolio) gap per year.

The Paths

There are many paths to hit our goal:

1. The market increases by 4.86% (after inflation) each year (unlikely at current CAPE levels).
2. Windfalls in the form of liquidity of some private equity (unlikely given current market conditions, but likely within 3-5 years).
3. Contribute more toward investments.
4. Decrease planned retirement expenses. The obvious way to do that is to move to a lower cost of living area or rent instead of own.
5. Be ok with less buffer in our plan.
6. Earn money through hobbies or passion projects because why not.
7. Aim to die with $0 in the portfolio instead of 10%.

There are also many potential roadblocks:

1. Health problems.
2. Family emergencies.
3. Recession/depression.
4. Fertility treatment.
5. Aliens.
6. World war.

The Plan

Given the options above, we will hold the course and see if we need to change things in 2024. Until then, the plan is to:

1. Max 401k contributions.
2. Max HSA contributions.
3. Spend about $85,000.
4. Save for a few long term goals.
5. Invest the rest.

I'm pretty comfortable with the balance of paths and roadblocks and I won't be surprised if the plan is completely different in two years. I look forward to the next update in January to see how off I am!